Keynote Speaker: Prof. Xu Dianqing (Peking University) Discussants: Li Guoxiang, Zhang Zhaoxin In the aspect of food security, Prof. Xu Dianqing proposed four criterions for measurement, namely, whether grain output increases steadily along with population expansion, whether grain prices remain stable, whether grain reserve is sufficient, and whether import is heavily relied on for food supply. In this sense, China's food supply is rather safe.
An empirical test designed by Prof. Xu Dianqing proved that, the fluctuation of the total grain output has barely any relationship with disaster rate, yet it has significant correlation to per capita grain possession and the natural population growth rate. He also built up a model of food crisis and answered how to alleviate the impact of grain output reduction caused by natural disasters and food sanctions on food security through setting up grain reserves standard. He pointed out that, according to the worst assumption, China's grain reserve level not only exceeds the safe line stated by the UN, but also far exceeds the guard line which might trigger food crisis. China should learn from the food store experience of Canada by introducing modern granaries and improving grain collection and storage system and management method, so as to improve grain storage quality and increase farmers' income. September 3rd, 2010
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