Time: August 2nd, 2013

Topic: A China without the Demographic Dividend

Lecturer: WANG Feng

Commentators: XU Dianqing, ZHANG Bin, XIONG Bijun, MA Jiujie, Tojima Toshio(田岛俊雄)

In this session, Professor WANG Feng started by introducing the definition, provisions, calculation methods, and misunderstanding of the demographic dividend. He then analyzed that the demographic dividend had disappeared. He closed the lecture with analyzing the impact of the disappearance of the demographic dividend.

Professor XU Dianqing thought it was worth reconsidering to see into the theory of demographic analysis. By calculation, he thought there was a surplus of labor force in cities and rural areas. It was necessary to look at the population structure respectively in this regard. He also proposed different opinion on the evolution of China’s demographic dividend and he appealed to solve the problems concerning the population growth and the pension system.

Professor ZHANG Bin discussed with the lecturer about the calculation of the dependency ratio, and the impact of demographic dividend on capital accumulation. He thought it got more urgent for the reform of industrial structure to reform after the economic crisis.

Professor Tojima Toshio believed that China passed the historic turning point in 2010 and the population aging began in rural areas. A minus growth of labor force began around 2013. He also questioned the Lewisian Turning point and he held that China was very likely to go through a similar phase like Japan.

Professor XIONG Bijun criticized Professor CAI’s opinion on the demographic dividend. He believed the aging of the population was a double-edged sword. Judging from the scientific development concept, he proposed method of promoting the harmonious development between the aging population and the social economy.

Professor MA Jiujie agreed with the lecturer and he thought more studies on the country’s status quo, policy, and institutions should be taken into consideration for a better understanding of China’s demographic conundrums.

Professor ZHANG Shuguang believed that it was essential to define the notion of “demographic dividend” with a clear cut. He thought it was necessary to combine the discussion on the demographic dividend with the discussion on the demographic liabilities. China should have a more flexible demographic policy. He suggested Professor XU to reconsider the statistics and take China’s situation into account for deeper evaluation of the problem.